model uncertainty economics

/Parent 2 0 R Science 352(6283):292293, Cerreia-Vioglio S (2016) Objective rationality and uncertainty averse preferences. 10 0 obj /MediaBox [0.0 0.0 595.913 842.74] ", Antony Millner & Simon Dietz & Geoffrey Heal, 2013. endobj /MediaBox [0.0 0.0 595.28 841.89] & Greenstone, M. & Hallegatte, S. & Hanemann, W.M. xXn6++Qo`0fWtg:4(_>DIvyHR^-nKNbZ &]]N&tlZZs>/ji|Zh UOhI"PL^5]R'6 HMZ"ma3=`#Mt" (P6:F?9j@5b3:5 UPH?7+Ho[/"gQWPE? z%9q Y 5&U.t>WD,@4L&AM0*Eg}OhbT8KHg &K=4n2nkWzVq|]ca6 7YI-5Kf[18T-`k \1$kul&z2(p3mSa%CpatlR6%QiC,T.)R~y^LYeMG2rhR6vC#\;.x^%&]!eJit)k~5wi~82Mn4`r"=}1%Aq9x;2#"A{~J (o:dnH|s$6sFWBds $SB`'yq'pga54\_ez.!ng&(&SHH Mh&%x$,I4&r!)T MPOm9Wi}("X7'q)Lpj t0yVB2!(s d+aCkAk4j-g3BUGo$.y]NxrG/o? /hS$g9MG&mriu&FU, << << For example, Ackerman and Stanton (2012) used the DICE model. endobj Model uncertainty is uncertainty due to imperfections and idealizations made in physical model formulations for load and resistance, as well as in the choices of probability distribution types for the representation of uncertainties. 0000002100 00000 n 2 0 obj ", Valentina Bosetti & Elke Weber & Loc Berger & David Budescu & Ning Liu & Massimo Tavoni, 2017. /Type /Page The model matches the dynamics of dividend and consumption growth, including their volatility dynamics and many salient asset market phenomena. 0000004881 00000 n Lille, UMR 9221 - LEM Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici). 0000007076 00000 n /Parent 2 0 R 0000019141 00000 n 42 0 obj 0000006096 00000 n In practice, however, researchers do not know which exact model specification is best. Modeling Model Uncertainty Alexei Onatski Department of Economics Columbia University e-mail: ao2027@columbia.edu Noah Williams Department of Economics Princeton University e-mail: noahw@princeton.edu September 18, 2002 Abstract Recently there has been a great deal of interest in studying monetary policy under model uncertainty. ", Sujoy Mukerji & Robin Cubitt & Gijs van de Kuilen, 2014. >> /Type /Page /Parent 2 0 R Nonetheless, the relevance of the standard risk model as a positive description of economic decision making often has been called into question in theoretical work. endobj In this example, the consequence function is simply the net output computed as \(\rho (a,\varepsilon ,\theta )=\frac{Y_{{\text {gross}}}-C(a)}{ 1+D(a,\varepsilon ,\theta )}\), where \(Y_{{\text {gross}}}\) is the gross output, \(D(a,\varepsilon ,\theta )\) represents the damages associated with climate change, and C(a) is the abatement cost. Uncertainty is pervasive in economics, and this uncertainty must be faced continually by policymakers. >> /Rotate 0 /CropBox [0.0 0.0 595.913 842.74] /MediaBox [0.0 0.0 595.913 842.74] /Author Uncertainty--about the state of the economy, the economy's structure, and the inferences that the public will draw from policy actions or economic developments--is a pervasive feature of monetary policy making. << We can look at the distribution of those RMSE. 0000007858 00000 n ", Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & Aldo Rustichini, 2004. /Resources 98 0 R In the past 20 years, measures of economic uncertainty have been developed that are purely market price based; structural model based, using data on real fundamentals and asset prices; text based; or survey based. 0000008339 00000 n Manag Sci 63(3):749765. /Resources 58 0 R 0000015122 00000 n ", Thomas J. Sargent & LarsPeter Hansen, 2001. New York: Cambridge University Press, 1132 pp, IPCC (2014b) Climate change 2014: synthesis report. Dokken, K.J. << [Field, C.B., V.R. ", Dominiak, Adam & Duersch, Peter, 2015. Springer, Cham (2019), Nguyen, H.T., Sriboonchitta, S., Thach, N.N. /Resources 50 0 R We design a model selection rule that captures the current set of fundamentals that best predicts the exchange rate. The researcher wants to select a model, estimate the parameters, and use the parameter estimates for forecasting. ", Battigalli, P. & Francetich, A. 32 0 obj At low temperature increases, the two versions are virtually identical. University of Chicago, Becker Friedman Institute for Economics Working Paper 201971, Broome J (2012) Climate Matters: Ethics in a Warming World (Norton Global Ethics Series). : Stochastic Dominance and Applications to Finance. Chatfield, C. [1995] Model uncertainty, data mining and statistical inference, Journal . << Economic uncertainty could involve. /Resources 70 0 R Correspondence to http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10640-020-00503-3, https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10640-020-00503-3?utm_source=ideas, Model Uncertainty in Climate Change Economics: A Review and Proposed Framework for Future Research, Probability and Uncertainty in Economic Modeling, Learning and self-confirming long-run biases, Learning and Self-confirming Long-Run Biases, GHG Targets as Insurance Against Catastrophic Climate Damages, Uncertainty Outside and Inside Economic Models, Climate Change Assessments: Confidence, Probability and Decision, Rationality of belief or: why savage's axioms are neither necessary nor sufficient for rationality, Objective rationality and uncertainty averse preferences, Objective Rationality and Uncertainty Averse Preferences, Pollution control with uncertain stock dynamics: When, and how, to be precautious, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Pollution Control with Uncertain Stock Dynamics: When, and How, to be Precautious, COP21 climate negotiators responses to climate model forecasts, Selection of climate policies under the uncertainties in the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC, Model Uncertainty in Climate Change Economics, Climate policies under climate model uncertainty: Max-min and min-max regret, Climate Policies Under Climate Model Uncertainty: Max-Min and Min-Max Regret, Climate Policies under Climate Model Uncertainty: Max-Min and Min-Max Regret, Optimal Climate Policy When Damages are Unknown, Optimal Greenhouse-Gas Reductions and Tax Policy in the "Dice" Model, Loaded DICE: Refining the Meta-analysis Approach to Calibrating Climate Damage Functions, 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Managing Catastrophic Climate Risks Under Model Uncertainty Aversion, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization. ", Pierpaolo Battigalli & Simone Cerreia-Vioglio & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci, 2017. 0000005873 00000 n Model performance uncertainty. Q J Econ 75:643669, Friedlingstein P, Cox P, Betts R, Bopp L, Von Bloh W, Brovkin V, Cadule P, Doney S, Eby M, Fung I et al (2006) Climate-carbon cycle feedback analysis: results from the C4MIP model intercomparison. Economic uncertainty implies the future outlook for the economy is unpredictable. Houghton Mifflin, Boston, Koopmans TC (1947) Measurement without theory. For example, the social cost of carbon might be calculated much like an asset in a dividend stream. In: Kreinovich, V., Thach, N.N., Trung, N.D., Van Thanh, D. /Rotate 0 /Rotate 0 Note that these decision criteria have axiomatic behavioral foundations that clarify their nature. /Rotate 0 *8~J=IW$TRL 0C tL&w Y(KN5 np.4-2 0000009493 00000 n ", Loc Berger & Johannes Emmerling & Massimo Tavoni, 2017. ", Robert M. Anderson & Haosui Duanmu & Aniruddha Ghosh & M. Ali Khan, 2022. Two types of uncertainty result, a state uncertainty within models and a model uncertainty across them. << /MediaBox [0.0 0.0 595.913 842.74] /Contents 53 0 R 0000006316 00000 n 3.1 Introducing Model Uncertainty We focus on the model uncertainty due to a concern for model misspeci cation (robustness). /Contents 49 0 R >> the various RePEc services. /ModDate (D:20200811114939+02'00') Cambridge University Press, New York, Gilboa I, Schmeidler D (1989) Maxmin expected utility with a non-unique prior. Cambridge, UK, and New York: Cambridge University Press, IPCC (2013) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. J Econ Lit 51(3):86072, Pindyck RS (2013b) The climate policy dilemma. /CropBox [0.0 0.0 595.913 842.74] models. 22 0 obj /Type /Catalog Its primary focus is the recurrent economic cycles and broad economic growth and development. Rev Environ Econ Policy 1(1):45, Pindyck RS (2013a) Climate change policy: what do the models tell us? Read this article to learn about Choice Under Uncertainty:- 1. 0000005778 00000 n 0000004986 00000 n presence of model uncertainty. General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com . Springer, Cham. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Change 7(5):627645, Berger L (2016) The impact of ambiguity and prudence on prevention decisions. : Notes on the Theory of Choice. Forecasting with Model Uncertainty: Representations and Risk Reduction. . #,(pZ\A" ?AK~H~(C~gA?\ul0Sas`!6-5Y5w'nv-'L~}U~zgT-N2hi>VIv_L37m)OOl4gG%aNs(ijwmvT /Contents 71 0 R . /Parent 2 0 R /CreationDate (D:20221031130800-00'00') endobj /Resources 48 0 R If a model is discovered to be correct, then we will change our behavior to reflect our new understanding of reality -- and when enough of us do so, the original model stops being correct. Uncertainty about the appropriate choice among nested models is a concern for optimal policy when policy prescriptions from those models differ. All three models are then extrapolated to a life-time horizon, producing cost-effectiveness estimates ranging from pound1600 to pound4200 per life-year gained.Parameter uncertainty is now commonly addressed in health economic decision modelling. /CropBox [0.0 0.0 595.913 842.74] ", Athanassoglou, Stergios & Xepapadeas, Anastasios, 2012. In: Hood W, Koopmans TJ (eds) Studies in econometric method. People in an uncertain environment are assumed not to calculate the optimal choice rationally in order to arrive at a decision. HWyp_G|picA0*! /Type /Page : An Introduction to Quantum Stochastic Calculus. (2009). ", Diederik Aerts & Emmanuel Haven & Sandro Sozzo, 2018. endobj << >> 5) Methodological guidelines to integrate DMDU methods into climate policy design processes. Q. J. Econ. This work was supported by the AXA Chair in Risk at Bocconi University, the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Unions [Seventh Framework Programme (FP7-2007-2013)] (Grant Agreement No. (eds.) /Contents 51 0 R J Eur Econ Assoc 13(6):10221100. >> We investigate the distributional properties of a number of different schemes . /Parent 2 0 R /Rotate 0 J Public Econ Theory 14(2):221244 00066, Xepapadeas A, Yannacopoulos A (2017) Spatially structured deep uncertainty, robust control, and climate change policies. ", Ilke Aydogan & Loc Berger & Valentina Bosetti & Ning Liu, 2020. /Type /Pages We review recent models of choices under uncertainty that have been proposed in the economic literature. >> 7 0 obj When people talk of economic uncertainty, they usually imply there is a high likelihood of negative economic events. /Type /Annot Second, they flag all articles that contain at least one term from each of the Chinese economic uncertainty term sets: {China, Chinese} and {economy, economic} and {uncertain, uncertainty}. Technial report, National Bureau of Economic Research, Rezai A, van der Ploeg R (2017) Climate policies under climate model uncertainty: max-min and min-max regret. One component quantifies newspaper coverage of policy-related economic uncertainty. 670337), and the French Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR), under Grants ANR-17-CE03-0008-01. >> 0000007914 00000 n /MediaBox [0.0 0.0 595.913 842.74] Wiley, New York (1994), Nguyen, H.T., Thach, N.N. Integrals with respect to probability density functions would arise without such assumption. The damage function presented in Eq. Expected utility /Im0 114 0 R Rev Environ Econ Policy 8(1):120137, Hill B (2013) Confidence and decision. Banking 3(01), 119 (2019), Nguyen, H.T. PubMedGoogle Scholar. /Version /1.5 ", Loic Berger & Massimo Marinacci, 2017. Different Preferences towards Risk 5. Springer, Basel (1992), Shafer, G.: A Mathematical Theory of Evidence. We discuss some two-stage static decision criteria proposed in the literature that address state uncertainty in the first stage and model uncertainty in the second (by considering subjective probabilities over models). /Rotate 0 ", Peter Klibanoff & Massimo Marinacci & Sujoy Mukerji, 2005. Rev Environ Econ Policy 9:304320, Deser C, Phillips A, Bourdette V, Teng H (2012) Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability. 2022 Springer Nature Switzerland AG. /Rotate 0 J Econ Theory 118(2):133173, Gilboa I, Marinacci M (2013) Ambiguity and the Bayesian paradigm. >> Clim Change 89(1):721, Lemoine D, Traeger CP (2016) Ambiguous tipping points. /CropBox [0.0 0.0 595.913 842.74] /Parent 2 0 R ", Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J Sargent, 2014. In: Yager, R., Kacprzyk, J., Pedrizzi, M. endobj /Type /Page . Retrieved November, Pindyck R (2007) Uncertainty in environmental economics. /Contents 99 0 R See Arrow (1951), Hansen (2014), Marinacci (2015); and Hansen and Marinacci (2016) for a discussion, and Aydogan etal. /CropBox [0.0 0.0 595.913 842.74] /CropBox [0.0 0.0 595.913 842.74] The second reflects the number of federal tax code provisions set to expire in future years. 2019). This is close to the concept of uncertainty as introduced by Frank Knight (1921) to represent a situation where there is ignorance, or not enough information, to assign probabilities to events. ", Acemoglu,Daron & Arellano,Manuel & Dekel,Eddie (ed. Wiley, New York, pp 126, Marschak J, Radner R (1972) Economic theory of teams. /Contents 61 0 R Synthese 187(1):1131, Hansen LP (2014) Nobel lecture: uncertainty outside and inside economic models. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-49728-6_1, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-49728-6_1, eBook Packages: Intelligent Technologies and RoboticsIntelligent Technologies and Robotics (R0). Written by Lars Peter Hansen (Nobel Laureate in Economics, 2013) and Thomas Sargent (Nobel Laureate in Economics, 2011), Uncertainty within Economic Models includes articles adapting and applying robust control theory to problems in economics and finance. ac[[n$69M,ZI$16&mGBOZ2L?d[6vO2 $k+RK!FH=)\-D'+o!el{y7s>(xO. Image by Author. : On random sets and belief functions. /Length 1530 Yale University Press, New Haven, Matthews HD, Gillett NP, Stott PA, Zickfeld K (2009) The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions. Reducing Risk 6. Ann. In this article, the authors offer an instructional approach that recognizes the . (4) is the one in the DICE code in Nordhaus and Sztorc (2013). /Type /Page An example of a softmax output for a classifier of 4 classes. /PTEX.Fullbanner (This is pdfTeX, Version 3.14159265-2.6-1.40.18 \(TeX Live 2017\) kpathsea version 6.2.3) [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Nature 459(7248):829832, Meinshausen M, Meinshausen N, Hare W, Raper SC, Frieler K, Knutti R, Frame DJ, Allen MR (2009) Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 c. Nature 458(7242):11581162, Millner A, Dietz S, Heal G (2013) Scientific ambiguity and climate policy. Asian J. Econ. Many economic models augment this model with very strong assumptions about beliefs, such as an assumption of rational expectations or an assumption that there is a common prior in multiagent problems. /Rotate 0 /Type /Page Downloadable! MathSciNet Poor quality of data, unpredictable shocks hitting the economy, econometric errors in estimation, and a lack of understanding of the fundamental economic mechanisms are among many dierent factors causing the uncertainty. >> /Producer PubMedGoogle Scholar. ", Berger, Loic & Bosetti, Valentina, 2016. >> Estimation is closely linked to diagnosis, and in many cases the techniques are extensions of estimation techniques. It focuses on foreign trade, government fiscal and monetary policy, unemployment rates, the level. /Names 4 0 R 0000008026 00000 n /Contents 101 0 R endobj ", Ilke Aydogan & Loic Berger & Valentina Bosetti & Ning Liu, 2018. Stat Sci 31:511515, Hansen LP, Sargent TJ (2001) Robust control and model uncertainty. /Resources 74 0 R : An Introduction to Random Sets. Models become our masters when we fawn over them and take them literally and impose ill-fitting theoretical straightjackets on what we observe and on the interventions that we recommend. /MediaBox [0.0 0.0 595.913 842.74] 0000014758 00000 n 16 0 obj /Rotate 0 Assets and other things. : On decision making using belief functions. Mimeo, New York, Chambers RG, Melkonyan T (2017) Ambiguity, reasoned determination, and climate-change policy. In: 2014 annual meeting, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, p 169952, IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: mitigation of climate change. ", Itzhak Gilboa & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & David Schmeidler, 2010. /Contents 59 0 R %PDF-1.4 % Production and Demand Each firm has a Cobb-Douglas production function, F ( A, K D, K F) = A K D K F 1 - , (1) >> ", Itzhak Gilboa & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & David Schmeidler, 2008. 13 0 obj /Contents 63 0 R For instance, in 10-fold CV 10 times repeated, we get 100 values for the model performance metric (e.g., RMSE). /Contents 105 0 R Springer, Cham (2019), Parthasarathy, K.R. Wiley, New York, p 1972, Schmeidler D (1989) Subjective probability and expected utility without additivity. L=^y:}oOa&/ Subject-matter of choice under uncertainty 2. Keywords: Model uncertainty, model comparison, New Keynesian DSGE, nancial fric-tions, monetary policy transmission, scal policy transmission, macroprudential policy transmission, robust monetary policy, forecasting. Chapman and Hall/ CRC Press, Boca Raton (2006), Nguyen, H.T., Walker, C., Walker, E.: A First Course in Fuzzy Logic, 4th edn. It is a slight variant of the version of the quadratic form presented in the theoretical description of DICE, in which climate damages are bounded to \(100\%\) (i.e., climate change is assumed to only reduce current income, but may not destroy pre-existing assets). endobj /Resources 102 0 R Mach, M.D. /Rect [192.022 660.868 193.019 661.864] endobj >> /Contents [41 0 R] M o r e u n c . 40 0 obj /MediaBox [0.0 0.0 595.913 842.74] << This is the first step to put you (back) in control. << Our results are robust under different model settings. endobj /CropBox [0.0 0.0 595.913 842.74] >> The treatment of uncertainty in the business classroom has been dominated by the application of risk theory to the utility-maximization framework. Robust Control and Model Uncertainty by LarsPeter Hansen and Thomas J. Sargent. (2017) for more details. Most researchers find that uncertainty shocksor unexpected increases in uncertaintyreduce economic activity, raise unemployment and reduce inflation for several months after the shock, the authors pointed out. /MediaBox [0.0 0.0 595.913 842.74] /Im1 115 0 R ", Howard, Peter & Sterner, Thomas, 2014. Field & Gary Yohe, 2013. endobj /CropBox [0.0 0.0 595.913 842.74] 38, 325339 (1967), Diaconis, P., Skyrms, B.: Ten Great Ideas about Chance. << 25 0 R 26 0 R 27 0 R 28 0 R 29 0 R 30 0 R 31 0 R 32 0 R 33 0 R 34 0 R /Contents 89 0 R In this example, the model uncertainty aversion function v is also a power function, with a constant relative model uncertainty aversion coefficient of 15. ", Gilboa, Itzhak & Maccheroni, Fabio & Marinacciand, Massimo & Schmeidler, David, 2009. << Econometrica 73:18491892, Knight F (1921) Risk, uncertainty, and profit. /Type /Page (2013); and Berger etal. 24 0 obj /Contents 77 0 R /CropBox [0.0 0.0 595.913 842.74] /Filter /FlateDecode In particular, we show how different concepts and methods of economic decision theory can be directly useful for problems in environmental economics. (2005), who show that \(\lambda\) can be interpreted as the coefficient of absolute of ambiguity aversion. Synthese 180(1):4763, Marinacci M (2015) Model uncertainty. We then use our estimates to compute robust Bayesian and minimax monetary policy rules, which are designed to perform well in the face of uncertainty. endobj Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. ", Robin Cubitt & Gijs van de Kuilen & Sujoy Mukerji, 2017. model uncertainty and macroeconomics, and the themes of the workshop. 0000006214 00000 n ", Burke, M. & Craxton, M. & Kolstad, C.D. 0000001949 00000 n /C [0 1 1] DOI: 10.1257/aer.91.2.60 JEL Classification . The reduction of uncertainty via better dissemination of information is thus recommended. /Rotate 0 Econ J 130:331355, Berger L, Emmerling J, Tavoni M (2017) Managing catastrophic climate risks under model uncertainty aversion. /Type /Page ", Armon Rezai & Rick van der Ploeg, 2017. Studies in Computational Intelligence, vol 897. We compare the performance of these uncertainty measures in forecasting three real variables with irreversibilitiesinvestment, hiring, and credit creationas well as in . : A closer look at the modeling of economic data. ", Pierpaolo Battigalli & Simone Cerreia-Vioglio & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci, 2013. A model probabilizes uncertainty using analogies with canonical random mechanisms that serve as benchmark (Marinacci 2015,p. 1000). ", Simone Cerreia Vioglio & Lars Peter Hansen & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci, 2020. /Subject 4 0 obj 0000007178 00000 n Schmeidler., 2009. /Parent 2 0 R Ebi, Y.O. /MediaBox [0.0 0.0 595.913 842.74] Scientific uncertainty regularly invites political manipulation and debates about communicating complicated and consequential models to the public ().Scientific models, in particular, are frequent subjects of political contestation, as in the case of climate change, because they are inherently uncertain and built on abstractions about the theorized relationship between cause and effect . Econ Philos 25(03):297302, von Neumann J, Morgenstern O (1947) Theory of games and economic behavior, 2nd edn. /Type /Page /Length 1870 /Rotate 0 In: Kreinovich, V., Sriboonchitta, S. /CropBox [0.0 0.0 595.913 842.74] /Resources 54 0 R Here's how: Focus on one particular decision point in the uncertain context. Demand for Risky Assets 10. endobj Predictions of a higher and more volatile inflation rate. See, for example, Pindyck (2007, 2013b), Heal and Millner (2014), Convery and Wagner (2015), Millner etal. Lille, UMR 9221 - LEM, 59000, Lille, France, RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE), Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, 20123, Milan, Italy, Department of Decision Sciences and IGIER, Universita Bocconi, 20136, Milan, Italy, You can also search for this author in >> 0000009211 00000 n 3 0 obj >> /Parent 2 0 R 31 0 obj We review recent models of choices under uncertainty that have been proposed in the economic literature. Describing risk of choice under uncertainty 3. 0000007233 00000 n The emphasis is upon the current effort to promote quantum probability as the most appropriate and reliable model for uncertainty in behavioral economics, both in human decision-making (e.g., in investment portfolio selection), and modeling of financial data, taking into account of human factor. Five alternative approaches to characterising structural uncertainty are discussed, including scenario analysis, model selection, model averaging, parameterization and discrepancy. 45 0 obj Google Scholar, Baaquie, B.E. >> << This allows to link your profile to this item. 30 0 obj ", Itzhak Gilboa & David Schmeidler, 1989. 1 This statement refers to the standard Bayesian decision model. /CropBox [0.0 0.0 595.913 842.74] 17 0 obj endobj /Parent 2 0 R /CropBox [0.0 0.0 595.28 841.89] 0000007970 00000 n /Type /Page 0000013307 00000 n 0000006851 00000 n If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form . Stat. /MediaBox [0.0 0.0 595.913 842.74] >> /Rotate 0 Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs (1951), Busemeyer, J.R., Bruza, P.D. 8 0 obj 0000006906 00000 n /Rotate 0 /Rotate 0 endobj << It permits, inter alia, to abstract from model misspecification issues (a decision-theoretic attempt to model these issues is in Cerreia-Vioglio etal. /MediaBox [0.0 0.0 595.913 842.74] In this context, George Akerlof and Rachel . << ", Berger, Loc & Bosetti, Valentina, 2020. /Parent 2 0 R << /Keywords Structural Changes and Their Econometric Modeling, pp. ", Pierpaolo Battigalli & Alejandro Francetich & Giacomo Lanzani & Massimo Marinacci, 2016. /CropBox [0.0 0.0 595.913 842.74] xWKs6WH@^j+RId=$9$$aJRv()+==c\2x{8K(i'A&`)t7 uGb ~A&ov$~1~ow^P$2JtB@)ikV4Hwy Hyv#?wSo{wJ8UDQt 1.HR,dqB3;+H[5 endobj (2017). ", Simone Cerreia Vioglio & Lars Peter Hansen & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci, 2020. As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it. ", I. Gilboa & A. W. Postlewaite & D. 2015). 1834. endobj << /Contents 87 0 R Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (2012), Chopra, D., Kafatos, M.: You are the Universe: Discovering Your Cosmic Self and Why it Matters. /Rotate 0 - 210.65.88.143. Wiley, New York, Ellsberg D (1961) Risk, ambiguity, and the Savage axioms. Economic theory does not always specify the functional relationship between dependent and explanatory variables, or even isolate a particular set of covariates. ", Burke, M & Craxton, M & Kolstad, CD & Onda, C & Allcott, H & Baker, E & Barrage, L & Carson, R & Gillingham, K & Graf-Zivin, J & Greenstone, M & Hallegatte, S & Hanemann, WM & Heal, G & Hsiang, S & Jo, 2016. << ", Karni, Edi & Maccheroni, Fabio & Marinacci, Massimo, 2015. /Resources 40 0 R /Subtype /Link See Bosetti etal. Emerging from the tradition of Marshall, Knight, Keynes, and Shackle, Time, Ignorance, and Uncertainty in Economic Models is concerned with the character of formal economic analysis when the notions of logical or mechanical time and probabilistic uncertainty and the relatively complete knowledge basis it requires, are replaced, respectively, by historical time, and nonprobabilistic uncertainty . : On quantum probability calculus for modeling economic decisions. /Resources 66 0 R Chapman and Hall/ CRC Press, Boca Raton (2010), Von Neumann, J.: Mathematical Foundations of Quantum Mechanics.

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model uncertainty economics

model uncertainty economics